Calgary Flames at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs (19-9-2) host the Calgary Flames (14-13-3) for a Friday-Saturday back-to-back beginning with Friday’s 7 p.M. ET puck drop at Scotiabank Arena. Below, we analyze the Flames-Maple Leafsodds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.

The Flames, sixth in the all-Canadian North Division, are coming off a 7-3 loss to the Edmonton Oilers Wednesday; they begin a four-game Ontario road trip with games against the Leafs and Ottawa Senators.

The Maple Leafs, first in the North, have lost five of their last six games and are playing for the first time since a 4-3 loss to the Senators Sunday. They’re 3-1 against the Flames this season but the last victory, Feb. 24, was by a 2-1 score in overtime. All three Maple Leafs wins were by single-goal margins.

Flames at Maple Leafs: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:36 a.M. ET.

  • Money line : Flames +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Maple Leafs -165 (bet $165 to win $100).
  • Against the spread/ATS : Flames +1.5 (-165) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140).
  • Over/Under : 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -120).
  • Flames at Maple Leafs: Projected starting goalies

    Jacob Markstrom (11-8-2, .903 SV%, 2.90 GAA) vs. Frederik Andersen (13-7-2, .900 SV%, 2.86 GAA).

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    Markstrom’s coming off his worst performance of the season in allowing all 7 goals in the loss to the Oilers Wednesday. He had previously won three straight games with 69 saves on 74 shots. He’s 0-2-0 against Toronto with 7 goals allowed on 53 shots.

    Andersen has taken back-to-back losses and has lost four of his last five games. He stopped 23 of 26 shots in his only appearance against the Flames Jan. 26.

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    Flames at Maple Leafs: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

    Prediction

    Flames 4, Maple Leafs 2.

    Money line (ML)

    The FLAMES (+140) are the play as road underdogs. Markstrom plays his best hockey as a visitor with a .916 SV% and 2.82 GAA in nine road games this season. Andersen has been struggling and was sub-par in his previous appearance against Calgary.

    Despite Toronto’s higher position in the North standings, Calgary measures better in the analytics. The Flames are 11th in the league with a 51.62% Corsi For rating to the Leafs’ 15th-ranked 49.47% share of the total shot attempts at 5-on-5.

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    Against the spread (ATS)

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    Bank on a bounce-back performance from Markstrom in his preferred location split and back the FLAMES +1.5 (-165) with a goal of insurance in the event of a loss.

    There’s still value on this line due to the teams’ respective position in the standings but complacency has once again set in for Toronto, as it has in most recent seasons.

    Over/Under (O/U)

    Take the UNDER 6.5 (-120), again primarily based on Markstrom’s road splits.

    Three of the four head-to-head meetings have played to the Under this season, including each of the two with a line of 6.5.

    Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.Com. Please gamble responsibly.

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